Tytuł: Intensity of maritime traffic on the Kołobrzeg-Bornholm route and safety of navigation: risk analysis and recommendations

Autor/Autorzy:  Diana Kotkowska, Maciej Kościelecki

Miejsce publikacji: Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Śląskiej. Seria Organizacja i Zarządzanie

Rok: 2025

Słowa kluczowe: AIS, navigation safety, logical tree method, risk matrix

Abstrakt: The objective of the study was to analyse the intensity and structure of maritime traffic on the Kołobrzeg–Bornholm route and to identify areas of increased navigational risk. Design/methodology/approach: AIS data and HELCOM accident records from 2004 to 2023 were used. The analysis was carried out using the IALA IWRAP Mk2 tool, based on the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) methodology, taking into account risk matrices and elements of the logic tree method. Findings: Clear differences in traffic intensity were identified on three sections (LEG 9-11). The highest traffic load occurs in LEG 11 (over 5500 vessels, mainly cargo ships and tankers). LEG 10 serves as a transit route, while LEG 9 serves as a local route. The areas with the highest traffic coincide with the locations of historical maritime accidents. The results are presented in the form of intensity matrices and heat maps. Research limitations/implications: The study does not include an analysis of the costs of the proposed solutions or the legal issues related to their implementation, which limits the possibility of a full assessment of the feasibility of the recommendations. Technical risks, such as navigation system disruptions, and the perspective of local stakeholders, which is important for the practical implementation of the changes, have also been omitted. Practical implications: The results obtained may support the decisions of maritime authorities and safety system operators. It is recommended to implement a VTS system, TSS plans and improve traffic organisation in the Kołobrzeg port area. Social implications: The proposed measures may increase navigation safety, environmental protection and reduce the number of accidents, especially in the recreational and passenger sectors. The study also supports the concept of sustainable maritime transport. Originality/value: The study integrates AIS and HELCOM data and the FSA approach for a specific region of the Baltic Sea. It is one of the few studies on the Kołobrzeg–Bornholm route and may be useful for decision-makers and the scientific community involved in maritime safety.

Adres strony internetowej (link) do pełnego tekstu publikacji: https://managementpapers.polsl.pl/?page_id=10617

DOI: 10.29119/1641-3466.2025.229.16

Tytuł:  Methodological comparison of lane design approaches under terminal traffic conditions in Świnoujście

Autor/Autorzy:  Diana Kotkowska, Maciej Kościelecki

Miejsce publikacji: Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Śląskiej. Seria Organizacja i Zarządzanie

Rok: 2025

Słowa kluczowe: container terminal, maritime transport, port infrastructure, risk management, sustainability, sustainable maritime transport

Abstrakt: The aim of the study was to look at the challenges posed by the construction of a new container terminal in Świnoujście - both from a technical, operational, environmental and socioeconomic perspective. The authors focused on how shipping infrastructure can be designed in a modern, safe and sustainable way. A comparison of several methods for determining the width of the fairway was made to assess which one would work best. This will enable an understanding of how to make better decisions when planning such large investments. Design/methodology/approach: For the study, fairway width calculations were made using three methods - Canadian, PIANC and USACE - and the resulting data were collated to better understand the discrepancies. The study also made references to current research about risk in ports and the need for responsible and sustainable investment. Findings: The results of the analysis suggest that the discrepancies between the results of the different methods highlight the importance of an informed choice of tools and design components. It was emphasised that a flexible approach to design is needed to take into account changing climatic, technical and social conditions. The importance of implementing infrastructure monitoring systems was emphasised. Research limitations/implications: The scope of the analysis was partly limited by the availability of up-to-date technical and environmental data, which necessitated the use of simplifications that could affect the precision of the results. In the future, it would be worth extending the study to include computer simulations based on real hydrodynamic and meteorological data and comparing the results with similar investments in other ports to better adapt solutions to local conditions. Practical implications: The results presented can be a valuable resource for practitioners - from port managers to planning and investment professionals. They highlight the importance of a holistic approach - combining technical issues with analysis of risk, environment and social considerations. This can help avoid costly design mistakes and better prepare for future operational challenges. Social implications: The study highlights the impact of such investments on local communities and the environment. They can contribute to more open community dialogue and better policy decisions. Sustainable port planning affects not only the economy, but also the quality of life of residents and the state of the environment. Originality/value: The publication has a practical aspect, being based on a real case study of the planned construction of a container terminal in Świnoujscie. It compares fairway design methods in relation to local conditions. It provides a tool for those involved in port infrastructure development.

Adres strony internetowej (link) do pełnego tekstu publikacji: https://managementpapers.polsl.pl/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/224-Kotkowska-Ko%C5%9Bcielecki.pdf

DOI: 10.29119/1641-3466.2025.224.10

Tytuł: Strategic and maritime implications of the planned fsru terminal in Gdańsk: a coastal infrastructure perspective

Autor/Autorzy:  Diana Kotkowska, Maciej Kościelecki, Alicja Łuczak

Miejsce publikacji: Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Śląskiej. Seria Organizacja i Zarządzanie

Rok: 2025

Słowa kluczowe: LNG, LNG terminal, maritime safety, navigational risk, floating energy infrastructure

Abstrakt: The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the planned location of the FSRU (Floating Storage Regasification Unit) terminal in the waters of the Gulf of Gdańsk with respect to the safety of navigation. The analysis is focused on determining the intensity of traffic of different classes of sea vessels in the approach area to the port of Gdańsk, indicating an increased risk of potential collision scenarios. The study covers the frequency of vessel passage through the two control gates, allowing the application of probabilistic risk assessment models for future LNG transhipment operations.Design/methodology/approach: The study used in the article consisted of examining how the intensity and structure of traffic of various types of vessels in the approach channels to the Port of Gdańsk affect the collision risk level in the context of maritime safety of the planned FSRU terminal construction. Findings: Probabilistic modelling of the number of collisions between vessels based on AIS gate data showed that cargo and container vessels pose the greatest collision risk due to their frequent movements and variable traffic intensity. The possibility of manoeuvring collisions involving passenger, service and fishing vessels was also identified. The study points to the need to implement flexible traffic management and tools for safety prediction and management. Research limitations/implications: The probabilistic models used are effective in the overall assessment of dynamics, but do not fully reflect the complexity of interactions between ships and the impact of hydrometeorological conditions. The assumptions made about the randomness and independence of events do not take into account actual operational procedures, such as entry schedules or pilotage. In the future, it would be worthwhile to broaden the approach to the issue by including models that take into account seasonal variations in vessel traffic and environmental data in order to increase the accuracy of hazard forecasting and support safety decisions in the FSRU terminal area. Practical implications: The results of the study can be used in the planning and organisation of maritime traffic in the Port of Gdańsk area, particularly in the context of integration with the operation of the FSRU terminal. The proposed approach makes it possible to predict potential collision situations. The implementation of such a model can improve navigational safety, increase fairway capacity and reduce the risk of congestion or incidents. For port operators and traffic management institutions, such as VTS, this means more efficient resource management and better preparation for handling special vessels, such as LNG. Originality/value: The paper presents the application of probabilistic models based on AIS data to assess navigational safety in the area of the planned FSRU investment. The value of the study lies in its practical approach to navigational safety analysis with a view to the future operation of the terminal. The results may be useful for maritime traffic management authorities, port planners and teams responsible for assessing the impact on the marine environment. The method developed can also be used in other ports with a similar traffic structure.

Adres strony internetowej (link) do pełnego tekstu publikacji: https://managementpapers.polsl.pl/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/223-Kotkowska-Ko%C5%9Bcielecki-%C5%81uczak.pdf

DOI: 10.29119/1641-3466.2025.223.12

Tytuł:  Navigational risk analysis in the area of the new container terminal in Świnoujście

Autor/Autorzy:  Diana Kotkowska, Maciej Kościelecki

Miejsce publikacji: Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Śląskiej. Seria Organizacja i Zarządzanie

Rok: 2025

Słowa kluczowe: AIS data, navigational safety, port infrastructure, 

Abstrakt: The purpose of this study is to analyse and assess navigational safety in the area of the planned container terminal project in Świnoujście. Due to the strategic importance of the project, the safety assessment requires a multi-faceted approach, including mathematical modelling and simulation methods. The premise of the analysis is that the level of navigational risk in the analysed area depends on the intensity and structure of vessel traffic in the designated survey sectors. The hypothesis is based on the assumption the level of collision risk is strongly correlated with the number and type of vessels registered in the AIS data for each sector. Design/methodology/approach: The research used a quantitative analysis of AIS (Automatic Identification System) data acquired for the Baltic Sea area for 2019-2022. The data was used to estimate the level of risk in terms of potential collisions and manoeuvring errors. The study is of a practical nature and is based on empirical data and analysis of local shipping conditions. Findings: The use of simulation led to results that identified high-risk sectors and could form the basis for recommendations on navigational safety and the development of future maritime traffic management strategies. Practical implications: The study aims to analyse current AIS data and local shipping conditions, which limits its application to wider geographical contexts. Further research is needed including forecasts of changes in traffic volumes and the impact of meteorological conditions. The analysis can be the starting point for more advanced risk simulations and costbenefit analyses for shipping infrastructure investments. Originality/value: The article brings new value by analysing navigational risk based on AIS data in a specific investment context. It identifies practical steps to enhance navigational safety in one of the key transport areas in the region. It is aimed at both decision-makers responsible for port infrastructure development and professionals involved in maritime safety and spatial planning.

Adres strony internetowej (link) do pełnego tekstu publikacji: https://managementpapers.polsl.pl/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/223-Ko%C5%9Bcielecki-Kotkowska.pdf

DOI: 10.29119/1641-3466.2025.223.11